Taoyuan Nights

I keep telling people that Taiwan may be due for one of the biggest economic shocks of its history – indeed, perhaps one of the biggest economic shocks in world history – and that the idea of a little 3% drop in GDP over the year is not merely laughable, but insanely absurd.

But few people pay attention. The shops and restaurants are still quite busy. My friends listen with curiosity and mild concern.

But what is coming, is not a matter for curiosity and mild concern. Rather, what is called for here is the significant and rapid readjustment of every aspect of your life. Not merely ‘tightening your belt’ but ‘planning for when you can’t afford to buy food at all’.

From the Telegraph in the UK:

This terrifying fall has been concentrated in the last five months. The job slaughter has barely begun. Social mayhem comes with a 12-month lag. By comparison, industrial output in core-Europe fell 2.8pc in 1930, 5.1pc in 1931 and 3.9pc in 1932, according to RBS.”

So… Taiwan is currently 15 times worse-off than Europe at the start of the Great Depression era, by this metric… Taiwan is looking squarely at the worst part of the recession that the whole world faces, during one of the worst global crises of the last 100 years.

Well, boys and girls, you can forget the government’s crap about a 3% drop in GDP over the year. If America can drop 6.5% GDP in 3 months, then by god, Taiwan can drop rather considerably more than 3% GDP in one year.

What we are about to see in Taiwan, is best described as… “La merde frappe le ventilateur”.