Taoyuan Nights

Some good news:

In my previous posts, I’ve referred to published articles which state that Taiwan’s exports are almost 70% of GDP. However, recently I noticed other articles, particularly one from the UN, that say that exports are only 50% of Taiwan’s GDP. If this latter figure is correct, then the more-than-halving of exports we saw in January isn’t quite as bad it first seemed, for overall GDP. But it’s still pretty bloody awful.

Also, in this link, you can read that the US has reiterated it’s support for Taiwan in a reasonably enthusiastic way. Definitely good news for Taiwan.

Some bad news:

Japan announced this week that exports are down by 55%. This is seen as awful news in Japan. However, consider that exports actually only make up 16% of the Japanese economy. Yet Japan expects a 12-13% annualised drop in their total GDP if the recession continues unabated, particularly because of the effect of exports.

So, on the left we have:

Japan – with decades of experience of recession – 16% of GDP is exports, there’s been 25-55% drops in exports in recent months, and they expect a 12-13% drop in GDP.

And on the right we have:

Taiwan – with almost no experience of recession in living memory – 50%+ of GDP is exports, there’s been 25-55% drops in exports in recent months, and they expect a 0% drop in GDP.

Who do you think is right?

Note to readers. There are a lot of other factors involved in GDP calculations. I’m simply highlighting that Taiwan’s government predictions are insanely out of line with other countries, and also out of line with basic common sense.