Taoyuan Nights

Hello everyone, just some quick bites for you:

1) “Taiwan’s Export Orders Fall for 11th Straight Month” and by rather more than expected.

However, expect a mysterious flattening or upturn in 2 months time as we exit the first year of the crisis and start getting numbers relative to last year’s hideous data.

2) Taiwanese unemployment continues to rocket up. Ma Ying Jiou is fulfilling his 6-3-3 promise in an unexpected way: >6% unemployment and >33% drop in exports… this is despite the government trying to employ half the country as mosquito catchers and full-time students.

I note that the Taiwanese government is bravely blaming current events on things such as Typhoons (how could one expect typhoons, in Taiwan of all places?) and other governments.

3) The China Post uncharitably notes that unemployment is worse in Taiwan than in the other asian tiger economies.

4) Mainland China: some extremely interesting articles about the Chinese mindset regarding housing. They will quite happily buy houses and have no one living there. I wonder how this mindset will hold up in the face of e.g. a Japan or Hong-Kong style massive property crash?

http://shanghaisandlows.wordpress.com/2008/11/22/suburban-shanghai/

Financial Times: Time for a chinese real estate crash?

5) Chinese bank lending. Taiwan just got slaughtered by hitching itself to the USA just before a credit crunch. Is Taiwan repeating its biggest mistake? Take a look at the bubble in Chinese bank lending.

6) Taiwan’s government debt hits the maximum allowed, with a spending deficit 50% worse than expected. Record amounts of debt issued; 2010 spending to be reduced.

7) Taiwan’s money supply grows by 8%. With interest rates near 0%, this suggests that price inflation may soon be a big concern in Taiwan. Look out for rising prices.

Anyway, that’s all for now. I really recommend those articles on the typical mindset of Chinese people towards housing, they are eye-openers.