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Taoyuan Nights

Archive for October, 2009

This week’s absurdly over-precise government predictions and cargo-cultism.

Having ‘dropped unemployment’ and ‘raised salaries’, as per their election promises, a Taiwanese government report now promises:
“in the absence of an ECFA, the country stands to lose 47,000 jobs and the Gross Domestic Product growth will be cut by 0.179 percent.”
“In the event Taiwan and China sign an ECFA without including the liberalization of agricultural [...]

Correlation is not Causation. Cargo Cults. Round Numbers.

Easy predictions & publicity-seeking behaviour
Another company is desperate to make a name for themselves again, after their absolute failure to predict any of the recent events that have plagued Taiwan in the last year. Here, they’re making a ‘prediction’ that has an extremely high chance of coming true simply by chance. And even [...]

Stockmarket Anchoring and Coupons Revisited

Anchoring
“Anchoring” is when you introduce a number to someone to make their mind fix on it. For example, if you walk into a shop and you see drinks at $2 each, then at the back of the store you see one at $1, you think, hey that’s a good price. Meanwhile, the store [...]