http://www.taoyuan-nights.com ... Life in Taoyuan, Taiwan. Sat, 14 Nov 2009 04:44:53 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Quick Asian housing news round up: In Korea... "SEOUL, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Housing prices across South Korea will rise in 2010 for a sixth consecutive year and by the fastest pace in four years, an industry association research agency forecast on Wednesday." (when do industry association representatives ever say anything ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/287 "On Thursday, the Taiwan Institute for Economic Research (TIER) revised its economic forecast for this year, predicting the nation’s GDP would contract 2.89 percent year-on-year, worse than its previous estimate of a 1.91 percent decline." Funny, really, you'd think people who were predicting 3 significant figures of accuracy would be ashamed ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/284 The following link (Telegraph) is one of the better pieces I've read lately. As you may know, historically, economists/financiers seem to have held the view that although Japan had horrific government debt relative to the size of its economy (GDP), this was 'OK' since it was all lent by Japanese citizens ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/280 Having 'dropped unemployment' and 'raised salaries', as per their election promises, a Taiwanese government report now promises: "in the absence of an ECFA, the country stands to lose 47,000 jobs and the Gross Domestic Product growth will be cut by 0.179 percent." "In the event Taiwan and China sign an ECFA without ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/277 Easy predictions & publicity-seeking behaviour Another company is desperate to make a name for themselves again, after their absolute failure to predict any of the recent events that have plagued Taiwan in the last year. Here, they're making a 'prediction' that has an extremely high chance of coming true ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/276 Anchoring "Anchoring" is when you introduce a number to someone to make their mind fix on it. For example, if you walk into a shop and you see drinks at $2 each, then at the back of the store you see one at $1, you think, hey that's a ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/275 Hello everyone, just some quick bites for you: 1) "Taiwan’s Export Orders Fall for 11th Straight Month" and by rather more than expected. However, expect a mysterious flattening or upturn in 2 months time as we exit the first year of the crisis and start getting numbers relative to last year's hideous ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/274 Sorry, I'm not updating so often these days. Some random economic nuggets relating to Taiwan: Typhoon Morakot: hundreds dead + US$2-3 bn of damage. Unemployment: "Unemployment in Taiwan has reached record levels for the third month running, according to the latest unemployment figures." http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8217907.stm Wages: Scott Sommers pointed to this - real wages in ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/273 ... but not today. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124958427788111913.html Meanwhile, cigarette smokers across Taiwan continue to insist that they can quit any time they want, possibly even right now, if they really wanted to. The only good news here is that the government is possibly starting to realise that if spending doubles and tax income halves, ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/272 In case any of the readers of this blog are interested, I've just published an old project that was lying around my hard drive gathering dust. It's a chemistry package for students, designed to be simple to use, and straightforward for anyone wanting to add new features. MollyCule - http://mollycule.org http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/271 Summary: Things continue to deteriorate. The government continues to claim it can't be happening. Taiwan's jobless rate hits record high. Yes, despite the government spending an absolute bloody fortune employing hundreds of thousands of people to pick up dog turds and trap mosquitoes, unemployment continues to rise. No doubt there ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/270 I previously commented about Taiwan's tax take; suggesting it is likely to plummet while expenditure rockets. The numbers are in: almost a 20% fall in tax received between January and May this year. This is despite stimulus spending that should have increased short-term taxable corporate income. Intriguingly, the article mentions that ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/269 Dear readers, I'm rather busy writing academic papers these days, so please do forgive the tardiness of my recent posts. Still, I thought I'd gather together a few economic nuggets that pertain to Taiwan for you to feast upon. Let's begin with a pretty picture of the damage so far... ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/268 People who died 'before their time', from various causes. H1N1 Swine Flu : US Deaths, 365 days preceding 29/04/2009: 1 American. Seasonal Flu : US Deaths, 365 days preceding 29/04/2009: 20,000-60,000 Americans. Ciggy Flu (Smoking) : US Deaths, 365 days preceding 29/04/2009: ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/266 It's good to see the IMF are gradually catching up with this blog ^_^ From the Taipei Times: In January 2009, the IMF predicted a 4% drop in Taiwan's GDP in 2009. Now, in April 2009, the IMF has just predicted a much worse drop of 7.5% in Taiwan's GDP in 2009. That's a ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/265 You may be wondering if my claims about Taiwan's economy falling into a deep, dark hole are just hyperbole. Take a look at this and this! Singapore's economy shrank by 20% in the 3 months at the start of 2009, compared to the previous 3-month period; and it fell 11.5% year on ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/264 Some people have complained that it's hard to reply to my articles on this blog. If you’d like to drop me an email about anything I've written, my email address is ‘|\/|u ‘ at taoyuan-nights.com. (hint: read |\/| as a capital letter.) http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/263 Some good news: In my previous posts, I've referred to published articles which state that Taiwan's exports are almost 70% of GDP. However, recently I noticed other articles, particularly one from the UN, that say that exports are only 50% of Taiwan's GDP. If this latter figure is correct, then the ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/262 There's so much bad news going around just now... Taiwan Export Orders Fall 22%, Fifth Monthly Decline Wage declines thwarting economic efforts: analysts TSMC is restoring regular hours.. but only after getting rid of 1000 employees! Taiwan giveth and Taiwan taketh away...after encouraging people to spend, new laws will lead to a sharp ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/261 Take a look at this report in the Taipei Times today. To summarise: Basic unemployment has risen to the highest level ever recorded in Taiwan: 5.6%. If you factor in the 'fake jobs' recently added to hide unemployment, the level is 6.1%. If you factor in the people who've simply given ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/260 The year-on-year figures are flattening out, month-by-month. Instead of '50% down year-on-year' as was the case in January, Taiwan's exports are now only appearing to be only 20-30% down in recent months, which would point towards a shallower drop in GDP of only 10-15% rather than the gob-smacking 30%+ drop ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/259 The Register reports a slight improvement in the situation for Taiwanese tech businesses: "According to a series of reports from Taiwanese industry-watcher DigiTimes, orders are piling up at some tech companies, and forecasts of future sales are looking far rosier than during the hideous last three months of 2008. Semiconductor designers, for ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/258 Economic news "Kilbinder Dosanjh, a senior economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), said Taiwan’s unemployment rate would surge to 10 percent by the end of the year, the Central News Agency reported on Feb. 21. " (Taipei Times) http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2009/03/09/2003437986 “if Taiwan were to employ the US calculation method, its economic growth rate ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/257 A nice article today in the Taipei Times... "If the US were to employ Taiwan’s calculation method, its economy would be reported as having contracted only 0.82 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of last year, which fails to represent the seriousness of the situation. Such a slight contraction could hardly reflect ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/256 I keep telling people that Taiwan may be due for one of the biggest economic shocks of its history - indeed, perhaps one of the biggest economic shocks in world history - and that the idea of a little 3% drop in GDP over the year is not merely laughable, ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/255 For those of you who don't know, "GDP" is a number that measures the size of an economy. Bloomberg reports that: Taiwan has now already had a record drop in estimated GDP (compared with the last 60 years). The rate of decline in GDP is getting faster and faster. ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/254 So... - the government is handing out free money to almost everyone - the government is planning on handing out free education vouchers - the government is planning to employ 100000's of people in huge infrastructure projects - the government is providing money to bail out local banks - the government is providing money ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/253 Hello everyone! Xin Nian Kuai Le! I saw a great deal of optimism at new year with people suggesting that maybe things would be OK. Well, I say optimism. What I mean is, 'insane denial'. Allow me to be blunt: Taiwan is in deep, deep, deep trouble. Read these links, ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/252 I was asked on another blog, why am I such a pessimist about the housing market? Here is my reply. I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist! I'm looking forward to a world (including Taiwan) where people don't obsess about their worth in terms of how a pile of bricks is valued; ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/251 A Taiwanese blog called Obblogatory kindly linked to my blog, and raised some views on housing in Taiwan. First of all - thanks for your kind words, Obblogatory. Regarding the topic of housing, however, I thought I should respond. Across the last 100 years or so, across every country in the ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/250 A university professor was giving a lecture about supernatural beliefs within Taiwanese culture. To get a feel for his audience, he asks "How many people here believe in ghosts?" About 90 students raise their hands. "Well, that's a good start. Out of those of you who believe in ghosts, do any ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/249 Michael Turton has just written an excellent short article about Taiwan's economy. I should probably make some comments of my own. My main concerns at present are: Exports. Particularly, Taiwan's DRAM manufacturers are being slaughtered by the Korean DRAM manufacturers, because the Won is cheap. Makes me wonder if Taiwan ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/248 This person seems to have misunderstood the nature of graffiti. A smiley face over Taoyuan! Those aren't stars in your eyes..."Stellarium" is a useful, free program. Here it shows Venus and Jupiter. http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/247 Economy "Hong said that the composite score for the business indicators stood at 12 last month — the same level as in September, signifying tough times ahead with recession forecast to hit the country’s major trade partners. " "Share prices plummeted 47.5 percent last month, compared with a 31.6 percent drop in ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/246 Voucher plan will help stimulate economy: poll OK, I'm going to give you some quotes from this article, but in a different order, to show you how crazy their conclusion is. Item 1: Is this coupon going to stimulate new spending? "Asked whether or not they believe the plan will encourage the ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/245 Taiwan's media seem to be implausibly gullible in their discussion of these 'shopping coupons'. Let's have some clear thinking about this supposed free money coupon that's being 'handed out' by the Taiwanese Government. Firstly: This is not an 'economic stimulus' - it is a voter bribe. If it were an economic ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/244 Taiwan's latest plan is to hand out free money to lots of people. That way, we won't be in recession any more! Hurray! Just one problem. It's completely daft, and it doesn't work. As I understand it, Keynes' idea of monetary stimulus involved government spending on projects in situations where consumers ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/243 See Michael's blog, here. http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/242 Recently, events in Taiwan have become rather strange. The ruling KMT party is cracking down on popular protests, while it negotiates with the Chinese government. I should confess that living where I do, I am quite isolated from political events and protests, and not speaking Mandarin very well, I am ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/241 Today, a student told me she had to run a series of tests on pictures, with particular filenames... for example, files numbered 13, 17, 21, 23, and so on. So, I explained that in BASH, we can do this quite easily: for i in 13 17 21 23 ; do commandname ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/240 The Taipei Times writes: "The latest statistics from the Ministry of the Interior showed that the number of property transfers declined by 35 percent to 26,527 in August from 40,839 in May when President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) took office. Sales in Kaohsiung City, Taipei City and Taichung City in August saw ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/239 First... please enjoy this video :) Finance has for a long time been the UK's biggest sector, ever since we wasted all the oil we had on a gigantic social welfare system, and closed down our factories. That ends today. Excluding HSBC which isn't really 'British', there were only 7 big ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/238 Taipei Times reports that Taiwan is catching up with reality and beginning to understand that Taiwanese 18th-floor 2-bed apartments are not actually worth more than Californian luxury detached housing (...or European castles!). "The real-estate market is becoming a buyers’ market, with nearly 70 percent of home buyers expecting to see falling ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/237 Today, Taiwan's main stock market index (TAIEX) dropped almost 6% in a single trading session. Taiwan's government has recently banned shorting of stock, has dumped public funds into the market in a (futile) attempt to keep the index up, and dropped the interest rate twice in two weeks. But I ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/234 I was going to write a roundup about some of Asia's recent exciting financial adventures (Pakistan is bankrupt, Thailand is essentially bankrupt and undergoing yet another revolution, stockmarkets are falling through the floor, currencies are either shooting up or zooming down, interest rates are being changed). Fortunately I found that someone ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/233 McCain. Palin. Obama. Biden. Of course... talk of whether McCain or Obama have greater support for Taiwan seems somewhat surreal to my mind - given another 4 more years of the present Republican party, America may not even exist anyway :-) Elsewhere ... Korea finds out the long-term costs of fueling ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/232 I've been too busy watching the markets lately, to find the time to write much about it. Suffice to say it's been the most interesting two weeks in finance, of my whole life. We've lost the world's biggest insurer, and basically all the world's biggest investment banks are dead or eaten ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/231 Heading straight for Taichung/Hsinchu.This picture mirrored from Taiwan CWB website. According to the CWB, this one has a maximum sustained windstrength of 53m/s currently and gust strength of 63m/s. That basically puts it into the 'worst type of Typhoon' category in the Japanese system (grade 5), and the 'pretty darned bad' ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/230 Some numbers from Saturday's Taipei Times... 1. Taiwan has at least 1 million houses that are sitting empty presently. 2. Taiwanese house prices rose 50% in the last few years, while wages rose 2% (I don't recall the timeframe mentioned in the article - it doesn't really matter with figures like ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/229 The UK, US, and Russian governments just banned short-selling of the shares in financial companies. Check out this picture - showing what happened in the first hour of trading. I could hardly believe what I was seeing. Once-in-a-decade (perhaps once-in-a-lifetime) events continue to take place in the world's financial markets...(click ... http://www.taoyuan-nights.com/archives/228